The state Department of Labor and Workforce Development said Wednesday that private-sector companies in New Jersey added 13,000 jobs in July, breaking 17 months of consecutive job cuts that stretch back to January 2008. While the private sector added employees, 7,100 public-sector jobs were cut in July as the state’s unemployment rate rose to 9.3 percent, up from 9.2 percent in June. Economists familiar with New Jersey employment numbers encouraged caution, indicating that the recession has employment numbers — considered a lagging indicator of a recovery — in flux. Pat O’Keefe, chief economist for J.H. Cohn, in Roseland, called July’s numbers “a pleasant surprise.” He closely tracks the state’s weekly unemployment claims, which he said show layoffs slowed over the past couple of months, “and today’s data suggests there may even be some hiring going on.” But O’Keefe warned “we have to be careful not to draw sweeping conclusions out of one month’s data.” He said until there are a couple of months of confirmation, he can’t say whether July’s numbers represent an upward trend. According to preliminary estimates by the state agency, industry sectors reporting job growth in July included leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, construction, and professional and business services. Leading the areas recording losses was the trade, transportation and utilities sector, which eliminated 4,500 jobs for the month. The financial activities and education and health services sectors lost 600 and 500 jobs, respectively. A detailed breakdown of the job gains and losses in the state for July can be found in a report posted on the agency’s Web site. Each month’s employment report is compiled through a telephone survey of Garden State companies, and provides only an estimate of employment numbers. The actual figures are adjusted annually following a more complete survey. Joel Naroff, founder and president of Naroff Economic Advisors, said he was surprised by the July employment jump, but said job numbers are volatile right now because the recession is ending; employment numbers could jump around over the next few months. “You can’t just take one month — I’d like to see a trend,” he said. “When the economy turns, the data are never consistent — you can be up big one month and down the next.” But Naroff said the national economy is turning up, and New Jersey appears to be following the national trend. “It would certainly be welcome news,” Rutgers University economist Jim Hughes said. “Let’s hope it’s not revised down in February.”
By Beth Fitzgerald and João-Pierre Ruth
E-mail to editorial@njbiz.com
